Six Upset Specials

This is where I get to be wrong. I have found six Democratic Candidates who are running good campaigns in the right environments who are currently not listed on any list of competitive races in the country by any professional prognosticators. . So here is where I go out on a limb.  All of these candidates will get 40%, most will get 45% and one will win.  This is not to rule out the possibility of other strange upsets.  But theses six campaigns have a real shot at riding a wave.

Michigan 9th
This is one of the serious under covered race in a district where it should be treated with greater respect.  This is a district that gave George Bush a whopping and impressive 51% of the vote in 2004.  While the Democrats didn’t get the most impressive nominee in Nancy Skinner, they did get a feisty one.  The finance report tells a good story. Incumbent Congressman Joe Knollenberg has spent more money, almost 2.5 million dollars, more then he has raised this cycle. He also faced a primary from a pro-choice Republican Women who got 30% against him. Now it is true that Michigan has open voting but this is still a sign.  Nancy Skinner is a progressive talk radio host, so she can deal with press. I also believe that in the end both Michigan Gov and Senate will break for us by about giving Nancy a chance at coattails, she has raised a respectable if not impressive 330,000 dollars.  Her website is  http://nancyskinner….
Check her out.

Minnesota 2nd
I just refuse to give up on Coleen Rowley. She was named Time Woman of the Year. Her campaign has been considered Lackluster, but Coleen has slowly clawed her way back into this race. We will benefit from a massive victory in the Senate Race and also hopefully the Governor’s race.  Her opponent Incumbent John Kline is also not loved.  He only ran slight ahead of The President in his district and only got 57% not terrible but also not wonderful. The only polling out is Survey USA that shows Coleen in striking distance 50-42. She has a real shot. Go Coleen.
On web http://www.coleenrow…

Ohio 3rd
  This is quite possibly the least covered house race that has any money be spent at all. Before I get to the specifics of the race let me be clear the key thing that this race has going for it is Ohio. The Republican in Ohio seem to be collapsing at an astonishing rate. This means that upsets just become more likely across the board. I point therefore to Ohio’s 3rd district. This is a surprise district because the Democratic Candidate was forced to drop in late August. What is surprising is that this caused the Democrats to have an improved candidate overall.  Dick Chema is such a candidate. He was a prosecutor before he decided to run for Congress and has put together both acceptable amounts of money and strong support from the politicians in the district. This district only gave George Bush 54%. It is clearly a long shot a Mike Turner has no real fireable except being a Republican, in Ohio that might just be enough.  It is clearly possible. On  the web
http://www.chemaforc…

Montana At Large
The Montana miracle  will be tested in this race. Jon Tester has run an awesome campaign and that will hopefully benefit Democratic Nominee Monica Lindeen. She has a run a good if under covered campaign. Remember that even while Schweitzer was winning by a relatively small amount we won almost all Statewide offices and the Legislature. I think it will be closer with a real chance Monica pulls it off. Again the incumbent Dennis Rehberg hasn’t  real made any fatal mistakes. The question is while tossing out Burns will they also toss Rehberg. There is reason for hope.
On Web http://www.lindeen.n…

NJ 5
If there is a greater example of Congressman who is just out step with the view of his constituents, it  is Scott Garrett. He was of the most Conservative Members in the House Voting against Katrina Aid and  Renewing the Voting  Rights act. The district did go 57% for George Bush but they just aren’t this Conservative. Paul Aronsohn  is a good candidate who has raised a decent amount of money with a decent bio and has been working hard.  He also has a lot of Clinton Alumni helping him. This one could be the biggest surprise if the district would just figure out how Conservative Garrett really is.
http://www.paularons…

IL 11
John Pavich was highly touted and then he went away, we will see if he comes back on election night.  It is only a 53%  Bush district and Illinios has trended very Democratic.  Pavich has also picked up a few newspapers and the Chicago Tribune stayed Neutral.  Incumbent Jerry Weller is likely to hold. But John Pavich has kept it close and I like it is an upset.
On Web http://www.pavichfor…

There you have it. Six races no one has on their list that just might flip. I stand by the prediction. Everyone gets 40 most get 45 and  one will win.  I am either a prophet or a moron we found out in about 40 hours.